Election 2026

Claims made before results are in can be used to dispute them later. We list the most-shared ones from public figures now, beside the record, so they can be weighed if they return. Reach as of 3:20 p.m. ET, Nov. 3.

Contradicted by the record.

• Katie Miller, a podcaster married to White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller (445,000 views): Westchester is “turning away voters”; “This is how the Left steals elections” (X). Voting continued on paper; the bags are “a standard emergency protocol aimed at ensuring that voting continues without disruption” (NYT). The state Board of Elections traced the failure to a programming update after a contest changed (Lohud).
• Laura Loomer (143,000 views): “Democrats are already trying to steal the election in New York today” (X). The county board is run by one Democratic and one Republican commissioner, and both parties are seeking a joint court order to count the bagged ballots centrally (RNC).
• Joey Mannarino, a pro-Trump influencer (175,000 views): “MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF VOTER FRAUD BEING REPORTED ALL OVER THE COUNTRY!”, pointing readers to the RNC’s election-protection account (X). That account’s own posts report the joint court order, not fraud (RNC); we found no report of fraud today (details).
• Rasmussen Reports (127,000 views): “The machine settings most likely have been adjusted to reject them” (X). The state board says a late change to one contest required a programming update; there is no evidence settings were changed to reject ballots (Lohud).
• Benny Johnson, a commentator who worked for Tenet Media, the network U.S. prosecutors say RT secretly funded; officials called its commentators unwitting, and he says he was a victim (BBC) (136,000 views), on NBC: “They’re going to declare Democrats in control of the Senate and the House before they even know the actual winners” (X). NBC said it would project control only if results bear out the polls, and that determining the winners will more likely take time (NBC News, X).

Not false, but out of proportion: the federal government. ICE: “There will be no escape” (2.7 million views; X). Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin: DHS will “hunt you down” (315,000 views; X). Attorney General Todd Blanche, Nov. 2: California has “thousands of illegal voters” on its rolls (X). Illegal voting is a crime, and it is rare: the Justice Department has charged about 236 people since January 2025, against more than 158 million ballots cast in 2024 (NYT). Of the department’s list of about 20,000 California names, 42% match no one on the state’s rolls (AP).

Satire, read as news. A parody pollster account styled “Dr. Nate G. Lichtman,” a mashup of the forecasters Nate Silver and Allan Lichtman (384,000 views): “I am beginning to see something in the Election Day data that I had hoped never to see again… One of them is visibly trembling.” It is a joke, not an analysis; neither forecaster wrote it, and it offers no data.

Set the record straight.

• Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), whose seat is at stake (909,000 views): “every ballot will be counted. Stay on line and vote” (X).
• The RNC’s election-protection team joined Democrats in seeking central counting of the bagged ballots (RNC).
• The New York State Board of Elections and Westchester County explained the cause and kept voting open (Lohud; Westchester County).
• Ken Bensinger of The New York Times: “FALSE: Voters are not being turned away” (X).
• Lucas County, Ohio, officials reopened a Toledo polling place within two hours of a bomb threat police called “not credible” (Toledo Blade).

Watch. Whether these claims are repeated after the polls close, when counts are slow.

The claim. Posts call the outage a planned trick to steal NY-17. Laura Loomer: “Democrats are already trying to steal the election in New York today” (X). Rasmussen Reports: “The Old Paper-Don’t-Fit Trick… The machine settings most likely have been adjusted to reject them” (X). Katie Miller, a podcaster married to White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller: “This is how the Left steals elections… they are turning away voters” (X).

What’s happening. On Tuesday morning, scanners at polling sites across the county stopped accepting ballots. The Board of Elections first blamed ballot “thickness,” then withdrew that and said only that the issue involves the paper ballots (Talk of the Sound). The state Board of Elections says the cause was a programming update: a contest in one municipality changed after the county’s Election Day equipment had been prepared and tested, and it has found no similar problems elsewhere in the state (Lohud). Voters are still voting on paper; ballots go into secure orange emergency bags to be counted (Westchester County). Voters are not being turned away; the Times calls the bags “a standard emergency protocol aimed at ensuring that voting continues without disruption” (NYT). Republicans and Democrats are seeking a joint court order to count those ballots centrally at the Board of Elections, the RNC says (RNC). Rep. Mike Lawler, the Republican whose seat is on the ballot, says “every ballot will be counted” (X).

Why it matters. Paper is the backstop: a scanner failure on paper ballots delays the count; it doesn’t erase votes. County Executive Ken Jenkins has ordered an investigation (Gothamist). Watch the court order and when the bags are counted.

The claim. Since Oct. 29, posts have argued that a cornered president, facing a likely loss of both chambers, canceled his weekend rallies to prepare an attack on Iran before Tuesday’s vote, in a bid to topple Iran’s government and change the political calculus at home. Some versions say he could use nuclear weapons. The most-shared posts on the rally cancellations come from an account styled “US Homeland Security News,” which is not a government account (about 626,000 followers; 2,400 likes): Trump “is preparing for War! … May Start At Any Time!!” The most-shared “nuke” version credits Sen. Chris Murphy with hinting at it (1,800 likes). Murphy said nothing of the kind.

The strongest case for it.

• The plans are ready. U.S. forces can launch major operations against Iran “within 96 hours of receiving” an order, two U.S. officials told CNN. Targets include energy infrastructure, military sites and nuclear facilities, and some officials say it is “a question of when, not if” (CNN). On Oct. 29 the head of Central Command, Adm. Brad Cooper, briefed Trump in person at the White House, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine. The Wall Street Journal notes that Cooper rarely does this, so the visit could signal the U.S. is moving closer to significant military operations. The Pentagon is sending a Patriot battery to Israel and has moved troops off exposed bases (WSJ). A third U.S. aircraft carrier and thousands of additional troops are headed to the region. On Oct. 28 Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth fired the Joint Staff’s top military planner, Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia (AP via PBS); a Pentagon official told CBS News he was accused of leaking classified information about the Iran war (CBS News).
• Pressure in the Gulf is rising. Iran says four tankers hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported a small boat attaching explosives to a tanker off Oman, disabling it. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards dispute Central Command’s claim that the main shipping lanes are clear of mines (CNBC).
• The motive is visible. Forecasters give Democrats strong odds in the House and better than even odds in the Senate (see the forecasts). This week Inside Elections shifted 63 races toward Democrats, and new CNN polls show Democrats leading in Michigan and Texas (CNN). A war, or an emergency tied to one, would change the subject in the final days.
• The rallies were briefly canceled. On Oct. 29 Trump canceled weekend rallies in Kansas and Iowa in favor of tele-rallies; he said Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall was “doing very well” (NBC News). Hours earlier he had lashed out at a reporter who asked whether he canceled for health reasons (New York Times; CNN). Less than a day later the White House put both back on for Sunday (see below). Vice President JD Vance also canceled a Friday “War on Fraud” announcement in St. Cloud, Minn., billed as official business; the U.S. Attorney’s Office gave no reason (MPR News; CNBC).
• Israel has pushed for a strike before the votes. An Israeli source told CNN that Netanyahu “really wanted and tried to convince Trump for a joint attack in Iran before the elections,” and that Trump did not give a green light (Times of Israel). The Financial Times reports that Netanyahu had the military prepare a multi-day campaign for the weekend of Oct. 10 (FT).
• Trump’s words leave the door open. “We may do another little Epic Fury,” he said at a rally last week. “Or they’ll agree” (WSJ). Asked about the post-election plans, a White House official said Trump “keeps all options on the table” (VOA). On election eve he said there was “no rush” but that the U.S. “might need to go after Pickaxe,” a site linked to Iran’s nuclear program, which he called “not a big deal” (BBC). Murphy, who says he was briefed on some of the planning, called it “insane”: “It will lead to devastating escalation and the likely destruction of our commitment to the rule of law” (WSJ).

What the record shows.

• Timing: after the vote. Every detailed report puts the strikes after Nov. 3. The New York Times describes plans “for renewed strikes against Iran after the American midterm elections” (NYT). U.S. officials told Gulf allies to prepare for a campaign after the election (AP; WSJ). CNN’s sources say “most likely after the US midterm elections” (CNN). Advisers told The Atlantic a new round “could come soon after Tuesday’s midterms”; the options before the president run from strikes lasting a few hours to several weeks, keeping the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, or walking away (The Atlantic). Trump has ruled out military action before the midterms (VOA), though limited strikes have continued (see below). He has also “repeatedly canceled plans for a return to major combat” (NYT). The AP’s diplomatic sources say Trump has not made a final decision (PBS).
• Limited strikes, before the vote. Late on Nov. 2 U.S. forces struck surface-to-air missile sites on Iran’s Qeshm Island that were being used against U.S. assets; officials called the strikes “defensive” and not a return to full-scale war (Guardian, citing Reuters and AP). U.S. officials told CBS the strikes answered Revolutionary Guards fire on a U.S. aircraft (BBC). The Wall Street Journal, which first reported it, says it was one of a series of smaller strikes in recent weeks that the administration kept quiet so as not to signal a wider campaign. Central Command has not commented. The same day, Vance said he and Trump “feel pretty good” about a negotiated settlement.
• The president, on Election Day. In a six-minute FT interview hours before polls closed, Trump said the US had no immediate plan to strike Iran: “We’re locked and loaded if we need to go, but there may be no reason for it.” He said indirect talks on Iran’s enriched uranium were continuing (FT).
• The rallies are back. On Oct. 30 the trips were restored: Trump will hold back-to-back rallies in Kansas and Iowa on Sunday, a person familiar with the plans told the AP, rearranged around the new tele-rallies (AP via KCRG). The Salina Airport Authority confirmed a 2 p.m. Sunday rally in Salina, Kan. (WIBW); A White House official confirmed to NBC News that Trump will rally Sunday in Salina, Kan., then Cedar Rapids, Iowa (moved from Dubuque); a source said the rallies were “rearranged for scheduling purposes to accommodate nearly 20 additional tele-rallies” (NBC News). No report links the cancellation or the reversal to Iran. The stated reason is the Republican Party’s, and the reporting also raises the president’s health.
• A diplomatic track is open. Vance sent a letter via Qatari mediators to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing early talks, with Vance offering to lead the U.S. team (New York Times and Wall Street Journal, via CBS News). Trump says the outreach is about medical supplies. On Oct. 30 he said the war is “going to get wrapped up soon” and “We need a guarantee there’ll never be a nuclear weapon” (Reuters).
• Nuclear weapons. No report, official or document points to nuclear use. The plans target Iran’s nuclear facilities, which is not the same thing. Murphy did not mention nuclear weapons.
• What a strike could and couldn’t do to the vote. A strike would not change ballots already cast or how they are counted. The risks to the election run through the channels this page already tracks: emergency declarations, turnout, and Iranian retaliation against U.S. infrastructure (see the risks). Posts saying a strike would cancel Tuesday’s vote run into the same limit: Election Day is set by federal statute, and only Congress can change it (see the claim).
• Air defenses now guard the president’s Florida home. By Oct. 24 the military had deployed ground-based air-defense and counter-drone systems at and around Mar-a-Lago at the Secret Service’s request. Snopes identified them as likely Avenger units, which fire Stinger missiles. Neither agency gave a reason beyond a “heightened threat environment” (Snopes).

What would change this. A strike order or a strike before Nov. 3. Any emergency declaration tied to Iran that touches voting or the count. Iranian cyberattacks on election offices or the power grid.

Bottom line. A renewed U.S. campaign against Iran is credibly reported as planned and close, and the president’s political position gives a motive to move. So far the reporting places it after the vote, a diplomatic channel opened this week, and nothing supports the nuclear version.

The claim. Ahead of Nov. 3, American and Russia-aligned accounts are presenting Poland’s fight over its constitutional court as a rehearsal for a “coup” in the United States, with Poland’s prime minister cast as a stand-in for US Democrats. Fox News host Laura Ingraham wrote that “America should watch what the globalists are trying to pull in Poland. Another warning to us” (X). Mike Benz called it a coup by a faction tied to “the Democrat Party in the U.S.” (X); a group behind the US “color revolution” posts said “America is next.”

What happened in Poland. Two camps are fighting over who runs one court. Police stayed outside the building, and we rate a coup there “not now” (Poland tracker →).

Why it matters. The frame is portable: expect it to be pinned on close races, slow counts or certification fights here, and tied to the “color revolution” claim below. Who is pushing it →

The claim. The Justice Department says Alaska voters may confuse Sen. Dan S. Sullivan with a second candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., and has asked a federal judge to block certification of the Senate race if the senator loses but would have won with the second man’s votes (complaint).

What the ballot shows.

The history. In June, Alaska’s elections director found the challenger had filed “to confuse or mislead,” noting he had asked to appear as “Dan Sullivan” with a Republican label; a state trial court ordered him back on the ballot, and the Alaska Supreme Court affirmed on June 29 (complaint). He has said he decided to run on his own; Republicans call him a Democratic plant (AP). On Oct. 23 President Trump told reporters he had ordered the suit: “I’m the one that said, ‘do it’” (PBS).

On Oct. 28 the New York Times reported that Democrats ran a monthslong, secret effort to fill the ballot with spoiler candidates, including this Mr. Sullivan and Gerald Heikes. The Times cites interviews with 12 people, dozens of text messages and documents prepared for a possible lawsuit, and says aides to the Democratic nominee, Mary Peltola, and senior staff at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee took part. Both deny recruiting any candidate, and Mr. Sullivan says he entered the race on his own. Peltola’s former campaign manager, a main source, later asked to retract her statements; the Times says her account matched its other reporting. Ballot-stacking is generally legal, the Times notes, and both parties have used it in Alaska (NYT).

On Oct. 28 Gov. Mike Dunleavy, a Sullivan supporter, directed the Alaska Department of Public Safety to investigate “whether this scheme violated Alaska’s laws and whether criminal charges or civil action are warranted.” President Trump said the same day that Peltola should be prosecuted (Juneau Independent; Washington Post). The Times itself noted that ballot stacking is common and generally legal, and election-law scholar Rick Hasen says prosecuting a candidacy over its backers’ motives would be legally questionable: “This stuff happens all the time” (Juneau Independent). On Election Day the Justice Department sent letters to about 20 Democrats warning they may be targets of its investigation into the recruitment, two people with knowledge of the move told the Times; the intended recipients include elections lawyer Marc Elias, whose firm has represented Ms. Peltola, and at least one official at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. The Times calls such a notice at the decisive moment of a close race highly unusual (NYT). On Election Day, Sen. Sullivan accused Peltola and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of devising a “scheme” and called it “the biggest cheating scandal in Alaskan history” (CNN).

The Justice Department has since begun issuing subpoenas to several Democratic officials believed to be tied to recruiting Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., and amended its suit to call the situation a “conspiracy to undermine the integrity of the electoral process”; no one has been charged. A department official told reporters on Oct. 29 that the department was not aware of any confirmed case of a voter mistakenly choosing the wrong Sullivan (CBS News). On Oct. 29 the department expanded its criminal investigation, sending dozens of new grand jury subpoenas, people familiar with the matter told the Wall Street Journal. Recruiting long-shot candidates is not usually illegal unless combined with another violation, such as lying to a court, and the ranked-choice tally won’t happen before Nov. 18, the absentee-ballot deadline, so the winner may not be known for weeks (WSJ). The FBI has also begun contacting people who donated to Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.; some told the AP that agents asked whether they had been misled about which candidate they were supporting (AP).

CNN’s Aaron Blake notes that Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. won 2.5% of the primary vote, that ranked-choice voting lets a confused voter rank both Sullivans, and that nearly 60,000 Alaskans had already voted early or absentee by early this week (CNN analysis). Alaska’s count will be certified under Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom by Division of Elections Director Carol Beecher, who in 2023 tried to pull the state out of the bipartisan voter-roll system ERIC, citing election-denial claims about it, and who gave the Justice Department an unredacted copy of the state’s voter rolls last year (TPM).

On Oct. 30 the Justice Department also asked the judge to order ballots “that may be impacted by voter confusion” set aside. On Oct. 31 Alaska’s Republican-led government asked the judge to dismiss the suit. It called the demands “inappropriate and not even possible given Alaskan voters’ vital right to ballot secrecy” and the idea of separating ballots “both disturbing and impossible.” On Nov. 1 Sen. Sullivan himself, asked on CNN whether he would accept the results only if he wins, said: “No. I’m going to accept the election results” (Washington Post).

On Nov. 1 U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason dismissed the suit. She wrote that the relief sought is “infeasible” because ballots already cast have been mixed together and cannot be matched to voters, and that the department offered “no workable plan” to segregate and investigate ballots “in a manner that would preserve voter secrecy.” She also found the bid ran counter to the Constitution’s grant of election authority to the states, and cited the Purcell principle against changing rules close to an election (AP).

Why it matters. The suit asks a federal court to hold back a state’s certified result, on a theory an election-law scholar called “strange and unusual” (CNN), filed hours after the attorney general said it is not the department’s intention to interfere. The court refused, so this page’s “Would move to High” line did not trip. The department filed notice of appeal the same day (AP); an appeals-court order before the count would be the next thing to watch.

This claim now has its own tracker: Color Revolution →

The claim. Viral posts allege that Democrats, former national-security officials and allied activist groups are plotting a coup: if Democrats win in November, protests would provoke President Trump into invoking the Insurrection Act, and organizers would then declare the federal government illegitimate and shift power to Democratic governors. Supporters call it a “color revolution.” No public evidence shows plans for violence or a seizure of power.

The story being told. In plain terms, the narrative casts the parts like this:

• The villains: former national-security officials, veterans of USAID’s democracy programs, and mainstream civic and legal groups, among them Indivisible, No Kings organizers and the election lawyer Marc Elias, recast as a trained network turning regime-change tools used abroad against Americans (X Space).
• The heroes: President Trump, his administration and the online researchers who say they exposed the plan, cast as defenders of a legitimately elected government under attack from within.
• The plot: Democrats win or contest the midterms, protests goad Trump into invoking the Insurrection Act, and organizers then declare the federal government illegitimate and shift power to the states.
• The twist: ordinary election protection, such as poll monitors, voter hotlines, lawyers, contingency planning and peaceful protest, is presented as proof of the conspiracy.
• What it’s for: the frame works whatever the result. If Republicans win, protests and legal challenges become “the coup” in motion; if Democrats win, the result itself can be called the product of a plot. Either way it supplies a ready justification for investigating, arresting or prosecuting opponents, and its promoters are already calling for that: “Find these traitors and arrest them” (X).

What the evidence shows. As far as the public record shows, the claim has no basis in fact. The leaked material, as described publicly, is contingency planning for a possible crisis, not plans for violence or a seizure of power. Even CynicalPublius said on the Space that it is “very hard to prove in a court of law that what they’re doing is criminal” (X Space). What the narrative does is lay groundwork for treating political opponents as criminals no matter how the election turns out.

Where it started. On Oct. 17 Jennica Pounds, who posts on X as DataRepublican, posted that the Insurrection Act would be “the trigger to pull off their coup” (X), then released a series over Oct. 18–21 built on recordings she says leaked from meetings of democracy-reform groups and former officials. Summaries of those meetings describe contingency planning for a possible legitimacy crisis, such as an options memo for governors; “coup” and “foot soldiers” are her reading. The Washington Post separately reported that US national-security officials have been quietly advising states on how to prepare for interference (Washington Post).

How it spread. Within hours the account CynicalPublius called it a “CIA-style color revolution” (X; 10,000 reposts). Sen. Mike Lee (X), Michael Flynn, who registered in 2025 as a consultant on Republika Srpska’s US lobbying contract at $100,000 a month (FARA), Glenn Beck, Lara Logan, Mike Benz (X) and former USAID official Pete Marocco amplified it; Elon Musk replied “Troubling” (X). By Oct. 21–22 it reached Dan Bongino’s outlet (X), Liz Wheeler (X), Frank Gaffney (X) and Promethean Action (X), the renamed LaRouche PAC (FEC). In a three-hour X Space on Oct. 22, DataRepublican called the material “the first time we’ve seen an operational plan to actually pull it off,” and described groups’ plans to staff Election Day “with monitors and lawyers and hotlines” as “part of the building process” for challenging the results. Asked whether the administration was aware, co-host CynicalPublius said “the White House deputy chief of staff liked my article about the color revolutions,” and DataRepublican added that “the right people know” (X Space).

Where the frame comes from. “Color revolution” is the Kremlin’s term for Western-backed uprisings (CSIS), and US commentators applied it to Trump’s opponents in 2020 (Yahoo News). In our search we found no Russian state-media seed for this version; it began on US accounts.

Why it matters. A belief that opponents are plotting a coup can be used to justify treating legitimate post-election protest or legal challenges as sedition. Watch for officials adopting the claim. That is already happening: on Oct. 20 Michael Flynn posted “Find these traitors and arrest them,” tagging President Trump (X).

The claim. Singer Stella Parton says that when she voted early near Nashville, the touchscreen kept defaulting to Sen. Marsha Blackburn until her third try. “Don’t let them rig this election,” she wrote on Facebook, and she repeated the account on X on Oct. 23 (Tennessean; X).

Read the fact-checks. “Why reported challenges with touchscreen voting machines don’t signal election rigging” (AP, via ABC News, Oct. 22) · Tennessean: how to verify your ballot · WSMV: one complaint in about 400,000 ballots · Verified Voting: vote flipping and calibration

How it spread. Similar posts from Democratic voters in Kansas, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas have drawn tens of thousands of likes and shares, some reading them as a scheme to flip votes to Republicans (AP).

What officials found. Tennessee’s election coordinator called it “not a vote-flipping situation” but “an unintended touch”; Williamson County found no discrepancies in its equipment; Kendall County, Texas, recalibrates its screens every few days; South Carolina has seen no unusual rise in complaints (AP). The state reported one such complaint out of about 400,000 ballots (WSMV). The same complaints surface every election, in both directions (Texas Tribune, 2024).

Why screens misread taps. On older touchscreen voting machines, the touch-sensitive layer sits above the display and is calibrated to map taps to the buttons beneath. It can drift, and a voter’s height, viewing angle or a resting hand can make a tap register on the next line, computer scientists Matt Blaze and Dan Wallach have explained (Blaze; Verified Voting). Recalibrating takes a minute or two and doesn’t touch votes already cast; election-security groups urge it daily during early voting (Verified Voting).

What to do. These machines print a paper ballot. Check the review screen and the paper before you cast it, and ask a poll worker if anything looks wrong.

Why it matters. The experience is real, but nothing shows votes being changed. Treating screen errors as rigging erodes trust in a count that can be checked against paper.

The claim. Donald Trump and Elon Musk admitted in public that the 2024 election was rigged, and are hinting at the same for 2026. A spreadsheet of their quotes circulates as proof, along with new clips. People sharing it often concede they can’t say how it was done: “You don’t need to know how they did it.”

The short answer. With the full sentences restored, the quotes are about turnout and poll watching. The swing states counted on paper and checked that paper by hand, and only one state’s margin came close to a recount trigger. Tap any item for the details.

What Trump said

What Musk and his circle said

What the record shows

Why it matters. A candidate’s boasts are not evidence of fraud, and treating them as proof leads people to doubt a count that can be checked against paper. Trump’s rhetoric matters for a different reason: it tells supporters to watch, challenge and doubt results. Those risks are tracked below.

Claims we see shared most, from all sides, and what the record supports.