The Election 2026 Risk Report: sources
Everything behind the tracker (140 sources): the reports feed, every credible source cited on the main page, background reading, and a separate list of sources cited with caution.
Reports
Newest first (23 items). Our monitoring adds headlines from major outlets automatically. "Checked" means our software fetched the full report and confirmed it supports its headline. "Reviewed" means an editor checked it against its source. "Auto" items have not been checked yet. Tap a label for our note. None of this is an endorsement. Our assessment is the rating on the main page.
- 8 Oct, 12:41 PM
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Our note: Trump posted that the U.S. will not attack Iran before Nov. 3; CNN reports military planners had been preparing strike options.An editor checked this report against its source. (2026-10-08) - 8 Oct, 12:25 PM
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Our note: Trump announced the pledge on Truth Social a day after telling reporters renewed strikes were under consideration; CNBC notes it ties the timing of military action to the election calendar.An editor checked this report against its source. (2026-10-08) - 8 Oct, 10:42 AM
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Our note: Hennepin County, Minn., joined Denver's suit, and the amended complaint adds a Voting Rights Act claim.An editor checked this report against its source. (2026-10-08) - 7 Oct, 6:44 PM
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Our note: The complaint says the White House shifted $20 million in Customs and Border Protection funds to the ads and kept airing them after Trump said his super PAC would pay.An editor checked this report against its source. (2026-10-09) - 7 Oct, 4:27 PM
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Our note: Trump says tariff revenue pays for the promised checks; economists doubt the government could afford the $1.3 trillion cost.An editor checked this report against its source. (2026-10-08) - 7 Oct, 12:39 PM
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Caution: This was a polling site for Brazil's presidential election, where Brazilians in the U.S. voted on Oct. 4, not a U.S. election. The man charged was not a federal agent; prosecutors say he wore an ICE costume bought on Amazon.An editor checked this report against its source. (2026-10-08) - 7 Oct, 7:23 AM
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Our note: Based on internal DHS records released by the advocacy group Democracy Forward; CNN notes it is unclear how much the two datasets overlap.An editor checked this report against its source. (2026-10-07) - 6 Oct, 6:00 PM
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Our note: White House officials told the Times that the president's super PAC will pay only for future ads and will not repay the more than $10 million in public money already spent; a new taxpayer-funded ad began airing Oct. 6.An editor checked this report against its source. (2026-10-07) - 6 Oct, 4:55 PM
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Our note: The White House would not comment; Colorado Newsline says the nature of the plans is unclear.An editor checked this report against its source. (2026-10-08) - 6 Oct, 11:20 AM
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Our note: The NAACP's filing asks a court to make the Justice Department disclose its Election Day monitoring plans.An editor checked this report against its source. (2026-10-07) - 6 Oct, 10:00 AM
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An editor checked this report against its source. (2026-10-06) - 6 Oct, 9:00 AM
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An editor checked this report against its source. (2026-10-06) - 5 Oct, 1:00 PM
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An editor checked this report against its source. (2026-10-07) - 5 Oct, 12:09 PM
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An editor checked this report against its source. (2026-10-07) - 5 Oct, 11:00 AM
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An editor checked this report against its source. (2026-10-06) - 4 Oct, 2:00 PM
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An editor checked this report against its source. (2026-10-06) - 4 Oct, 12:00 PM
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An editor checked this report against its source. (2026-10-06) - 4 Oct, 8:00 AM
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An editor checked this report against its source. (2026-10-06) - 1 Oct, 8:00 AM
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An editor checked this report against its source. (2026-10-06) - 28 Sep, 8:00 AM
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An editor checked this report against its source. (2026-10-06) - 27 Sep, 12:37 PM
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Our note: CNN reports a third taxpayer-funded White House TV ad featuring the president, aired during NFL games five weeks before the election; the White House calls such ads public service announcements, not campaign ads.An editor checked this report against its source. (2026-10-07) - 24 Sep, 8:00 AM
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An editor checked this report against its source. (2026-10-06) - 14 Sep, 8:00 AM
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An editor checked this report against its source. (2026-10-06)
Sources cited on the tracker
Every credible outside source linked from the main page (103), grouped by where it is cited.
Start here: why the system is hard to break
“Chinese” voting machines
Mail ballots & executive orders
Troops, Guard or ICE at the polls
Postponing the election, martial law, a plague pretext
Voter-roll demands & citizenship checks
Foreign influence operations
Weaker federal election defenses
Calling slow counts “rigged”
Payments promised on the outcome
Taxpayer-funded ads featuring the president
Big money: Musk's America PAC
Iran war & cyber spillover
Outside crises as triggers: prices, the border
Plain breakdowns: software, mail, staffing
Threats, bomb hoaxes & violence
Post-election protests treated as terrorism
Local officials: certification & ballot custody
Refusing to seat winners on Jan. 3
Hard: physical force
What the forecasters project
Claims in circulation
Key dates
Background reading
Analysis and documents we drew on that are not linked from the main page. Analysis pieces inform our questions; we cite facts to their primary sources.
Cited with caution
These are not independent evidence. We link them only as the record of a claim we examine, or of a party’s own position, and say why next to each one. Facts on the tracker come from the sources above.